The ballot — performed by the Democratic-aligned polling agency GBAO and the Republican-aligned agency Fabrizio Lee — has even worse information than that for Biden. Solely a couple of quarter of respondents say that Biden’s insurance policies helped them personally, with fewer than 1 in 10 saying his insurance policies strongly helped. However a 3rd of respondents stated that Trump’s insurance policies strongly helped them.
There’s a 40-point hole between the 2 presidents when taking a look at web views of their insurance policies: respondents had been 13 factors extra more likely to say that Trump’s helped them somewhat than harm them, whereas they had been 30 factors extra more likely to say that Biden’s harm greater than they helped.
That is admittedly a obscure query, however many respondents in all probability seen their solutions via the lens of the financial system. In any case, financial issues are typically amongst these on the forefront of evaluations of politicians and, on this ballot, a plurality of respondents recognized the financial system as their primary challenge heading into the 2024 election.
There are additionally exterior indicators that individuals choose Trump’s financial system to Biden’s. The College of Michigan conducts month-to-month assessments of how individuals view the financial system, together with evaluations of shopper sentiment and views of present financial situations. Over the previous 5 years — two throughout which Trump was president and three throughout which Biden was — each measures have dropped.
A lot of that may be a operate of a decline amongst Republicans, which is a typical partisan response. But it surely’s additionally as a result of Democrats, Biden’s base, view the financial system up to now three years about as they did within the earlier two. Even inside his get together, in different phrases, Biden doesn’t have an enormous benefit on the financial system.
And but! The identical Journal ballot discovered that, in a hypothetical/probably Trump-Biden contest subsequent November, Trump leads 47 p.c to 43 p.c, a lead that falls throughout the margin of error.
So People suppose Biden’s insurance policies have harm them and Trump’s have helped them. People are also torn between voting for Biden or Trump. These aren’t all the identical People, after all, but it surely’s nonetheless surprising.
There are some hints within the Journal ballot about why the race stays shut, regardless of that contradiction. One is that solely a couple of fifth of respondents see the financial system as a very powerful challenge for 2024 — and {that a} third of respondents suppose Biden would do a greater job on the financial system than Trump. (Simply over half say Trump would.) A fifth of voters determine abortion, safety of democracy or opposition to right-wing politics as their prime considerations, points on which Biden has a (predictable) benefit.
That reveals up when the Journal’s pollsters requested respondents why they supported every candidate. Greater than half of those that stated they’d positively or in all probability again Biden stated that their votes had been a measure not of their help for the present president however, as an alternative, opposition to the previous one, Trump. Totally a fifth of these interviewed stated they deliberate to vote for Biden in opposition to Trump.
Two-thirds of independents stated their intention to vote for Biden was out of opposition to Trump. Lower than half of independents who stated they deliberate to vote for Trump stated it was out of opposition to Biden.
We additionally see Biden’s enthusiasm points right here: Greater than twice as many individuals stated they had been voting for Trump due to Trump than stated they had been voting for Biden due to Biden. This dynamic isn’t new; hostility to Trump was one of many central causes that Biden gained in 2020. However its endurance is vital because it raises the ground for Biden’s help. There are lots of voters for whom Trump is just unacceptable and who will vote for Biden no matter how they view his presidency.
None of that is to say that views of Biden’s insurance policies as dangerous aren’t an issue for him. They could make it much less probably for individuals to help his candidacy or to prove to vote. It’s, as an alternative, to notice that — maybe on this election greater than most — individuals’s vote desire could also be outlined much less by what the incumbent has carried out than by what his opponent did.