Optics is an integral a part of Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s persona and there’s a southern focus to it, particularly because the daybreak of 2024. Aside from the calibrated electoral goal of profitable seats within the 5 southern states and union territories, the southern focus can also be to win a extra symbolic battle.
Merely put, the query is, can current day India’s strongest political persona decisively transcend the North-South linguistic divide? A nagging query for the get together and the Prime Minister in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, the place they’ve had solely marginal enchantment.
Having reiterated his grip over the Hindi heartland and drumming up fervour because the Ram Mandir consecration approaches at Ayodhya, PM Modi has made three journeys to southern states, that includes temple visits in conventional native apparel to roadshows, announcement of initiatives and even snorkelling in Lakshadweep.
Embracing southern cultures has been a constant theme, from the Sengol in parliament to occasions on the Kashi Tamil Sangam, and lots of different programmes. The check in 2024 is translating that into votes. This isn’t nearly seats; that is as a lot about altering the southern narrative for the BJP and the PM’s persona.
Traditionally, Hindutva has struggled to discover a footing in southern states, which have been dominated by regional events and powerful linguistic identities born out of opposition to Hindi imposition. Even in Karnataka, the one southern state the place the BJP has been in energy, the get together’s flavour is dominated by regional leaders, who’ve been capable of assert themselves even within the modified equations throughout the get together.
Out of the 131 Lok Sabha seats within the southern area – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and Lakshadweep – the BJP gained 29 in 2019. Whereas that is one seat greater than the 28 gained by the Congress, the unfold of seats is what defines the BJP’s and, maybe, Prime Minister Modi’s southern predicament.
Twenty-five of the 28 BJP seats got here from Karnataka and 4 from Telangana. Within the 65 seats of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, the get together had a negligible presence and was fully depending on a regional ally. Within the 20 seats of Kerala, it drew a clean and however gained a substantial vote share of 28, 27 and 30 p.c solely in Thrissur , Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram seats.
The truth that the Congress has had decisive victories within the Karnataka and Telangana elections whereas the BJP has been decisively sweeping the Hindi heartland has solely accentuated the southern predicament.
Mr. Modi’s visits to the South have been rigorously curated and calibrated, state-specific methods are unfolding. The underlying theme is that the BJP won’t abandon a struggle within the south, even in states the place it has struggled for relevance, like Tamil Nadu.
Regardless of having misplaced the AIADMK as an ally right here, the BJP has remained agency on the management of state BJP president Ok Annamalai. The AIADMK had categorically blamed Annamalai’s actions and statements difficult Dravidian ideology and icons of the motion for the break-up. The truth that the BJP has by no means gained even important vote shares within the state has not stopped it rallying behind its native chief and reiterating its ideological id and management.
There should be last-minute patch ups or tacit understandings, however the general method is to construct the get together and make it related within the state, if not in seats, no less than with vote shares.
There may be hypothesis that the PM could contest from Tamil Nadu’s Ramanathapuram seat, with the temple city of Rameshwaram as a second seat. Whereas the PM or a union minister contesting from Tamil Nadu is mere hypothesis, reworking the optics in Dravidian politics is a sure goal and a status situation.
Once more, in Kerala, the main focus is on wresting seats like Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram, the place the get together gained a good vote share in 2019. Even when it is only one seat, the get together desires to interrupt into the Left versus Congress battlefield right here. Right here too, there’s hypothesis that the BJP may area certainly one of its high cupboard ministers to bolster the optics. The Hindu vote is a cornerstone in these seats, however there was a reach-out to girls voters throughout the PM’s visits.
Having gained 4 of the 19 seats in Telangana in 2019 and hitting its highest ever variety of eight meeting seats in 2023, the BJP has been targeted on the state. One of many causes for the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) defeat within the latest polls has been attributed to the rise of the BJP within the state, and the get together is eager to hold that momentum into the Lok Sabha polls.
Within the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, which can have simultaneous meeting elections, the search for an ally or an understanding appears open. It is once more preventing to color over its irrelevance in electoral politics right here, and whereas there’s obvious proximity to Chief Minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSRCP, the opposition Telugu Desam too is but to agency up an alliance.
Lastly, in its stronghold of Karnataka, the place it has held sway since 2004, the BJP has tied up with the Janata Dal (Secular). The 2 events signify a union of the Lingayat sect and the OBC Vokkaliga caste – the 2 dominant forces in Karnataka. This can be a long-term alliance with the potential of HD Kumaraswamy ultimately merging with the BJP, however for the second, the explicit goal for the BJP is to wrest 25 of 29 seats prefer it did final time.
By way of simply seats, the truth that the get together has already maxed out in Karnataka and the scope for incremental good points from the opposite states collectively is proscribed to single digits, could imply that the southern push is aimed extra at altering narratives than including numbers. And 2024 will probably be one other check of whether or not the PM and his get together can breach their remaining frontier.
(TM Veeraraghav is Government Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the private opinions of the creator.