Top-down dominance and Cinderella shock: The WTA tour was balanced between these two poles final season. The No. 1 and No. 2 gamers, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, received the primary two Grand Slams. Then, on the final two, Marketa Vondrousova and Coco Gauff rose as much as declare their maiden main titles.
Which facet will win out to begin the 2024 Slam season on the Australian Open? Will the draw go to kind, or will we’ve got insubordination among the many ranks? I attempt to reply that query and 4 others in our ladies’s Aussie Open draw preview.
What are the first-round matches to observe?
Iga Swiatek vs. Sofia Kenin
It’s the 38th-ranked Kenin, fairly than the No. 1 Swiatek, who has an Australian Open title. However this truth may imply Swiatek desires this match, and the subsequent six, that rather more.
Angelique Kerber vs. Danielle Collins
At 35, Kerber, the 2016 AO champion, joins the ranks of returning mothers. She’ll face Collins, the 2022 finalist. 5 years in the past right here, the American pummeled the German with a backhand barrage, 6-0, 6-2.
Elena Rybakina vs. Karolina Pliskova
It’s jarring to see a first-rounder between a former No. 1 and a Wimbledon champion. Massive serves will rule the day, and Rybakina will seemingly win. She’s 3-Zero towards Pliskova, and appeared very in-form final week.
Caroline Garcia vs. Naomi Osaka
Essentially the most-watched first-round match will be the least predictable. Garcia is famously up and down, and Osaka is coming again after greater than a 12 months away. Osaka received their solely earlier match.
Emma Raducanu vs. Shelby Rogers
Raducanu has performed two instances since Might; Rogers hasn’t performed in any respect since July. The American likes this match, however the Brit received their solely assembly, throughout her miracle US Open title run of 2021.
Who has a simple street, and who has a troublesome one?
Swiatek’s quarter features a land mine or two. Her first two matches, towards Kenin and both Kerber or Collins, will come towards gamers who’ve had extra success than she has in Australia. Later, she might play Elina Svitolina and Jelena Ostapenko; the previous beat her at Wimbledon, the latter on the US Open.
Rybakina will face a take a look at instantly in Pliskova, and one other, probably, within the quarters, from both Jessica Pegula or Zheng Qinwen.
The fourth-seeded Gauff has a smooth-looking street to begin, however two-time AO champ Osaka is in her quarter, together with Maria Sakkari and Garcia.
On paper, No. 2 Sabalenka would appear to have little to fret about within the early levels of her title protection. No. 13 Liudmila Samsonova could also be her fourth-round opponent, and No. 6 Ons Jabeur may even see her within the quarterfinals.
Who may put on a glass slipper?
On the boys’s facet, the Australian Open usually has room for a shock semifinalist. On the ladies’s, the match has not too long ago gone higher and reserved area for a Cinderella finalist, or perhaps a winner. Kenin received the title in 2020, and Jen Brady and Collins made the finals in 2021 and 2022.
If there’s somebody who can maintain that American custom alive, it’s most likely fifth-seeded Jessica Pegula, who has made the quarterfinals three years operating.
However two greater hitters additionally appear due for a Slam breakthrough: Samsonova and Zheng. Samsonova will begin towards Amanda Anisimova, and is slated to play Sabalenka within the fourth spherical. Zheng will begin towards American Ashlyn Krueger, and will play Pegula within the fourth spherical.
Then there’s 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva. A Slam title or extra would appear to be in her future, however how briskly will that future arrive? She may play Jabeur within the second spherical.
Who’s returning, and who’s not?
It’s a banner 12 months for WTA comebacks in Australia. Osaka is the highest-profile of them, adopted by Kerber, Raducanu, Caroline Wozniacki and Paula Badosa.
Osaka appeared slot in her debut in Brisbane, the place she received a match and misplaced one. Garcia will likely be a troublesome opener for her, however there’s nobody within the draw she will be able to’t beat on the precise day. Extra vital, she must be motivated in a manner that she hasn’t been for the final two years.
And don’t dismiss Wozniacki’s possibilities. The 2018 champ, who continues to be simply 33, appeared a lot the identical as ever in her return final summer time, and she or he opens towards 20th-seeded Magda Linette.
One former finalist who isn’t again in Ozis Jen Brady. The knee downside that saved her out for 2 years is holding her out once more.
Who’s going to win?
So, will it’s chalk, or shock?
Regardless of her pretty powerful draw, I just like the top-seeded Swiatek’s possibilities. She appeared to resolve some issues late final 12 months, she began properly in United Cup, she ought to play properly on these courts, and she or he must also badly need to win her first title right here.
However I additionally favored what I noticed from Rybakina throughout her Brisbane title run, the place she rolled previous Sabalenka within the closing. She additionally beat Swiatek right here final 12 months, and once more on arduous courts at Indian Wells.
As for Gauff, she appeared sharp successful in Auckland, and she or he has a very good early draw. However she’s nonetheless susceptible to late-match nerves, and two straight Slam titles for the 19-year-old could also be somewhat an excessive amount of to ask — she nonetheless has some shoring as much as do. Sabalenka can be unlikely to donate one other match to her the best way she did within the US Open closing.
How about Sabalenka herself? The defending champ is usually lights out within the early rounds at Slams, however she stumbles as she approaches the end line. It received’t be straightforward for her to shut if she faces both Swiatek or Rybakina within the closing.
Semifinals: Rybakina d. Swiatek; Sabalenka d. Gauff
Closing: Rybakina d. Sabalenka. —Tennis.com