In recent times, the credibility of a few of NSO’s knowledge, particularly the outcomes of assorted family surveys historically carried out by the Nationwide Pattern Survey Workplace have come underneath a cloud, with even high authorities officers questioning their method and outcomes. File
| Picture Credit score: Reuters
The story up to now: The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has shaped a brand new Standing Committee on Statistics (SCoS) to advise on official knowledge generated by the Nationwide Statistical Workplace (NSO). This panel, chaired by former Nationwide Statistical Fee chief and India’s first Chief Statistician Pronab Sen, will change one other committee headed by him that was shaped in 2019 to advise on financial knowledge.
What’s completely different in regards to the new committee?
The Standing Committee on Financial Statistics was mandated to evaluate the framework for financial indicators similar to these pertaining to the economic and companies sectors, together with labour power statistics. This meant its focus was restricted to reviewing high-frequency knowledge just like the Index of Industrial Manufacturing (IIP) and the Client Value Index (CPI), other than surveys and enumerations just like the Financial Census, Annual Survey of Industries and the Periodic Labour Power Survey. The SCoS, as per the order issued by the Ministry on July 13, has “enhanced phrases of reference” that allow it to advise the Ministry not simply on all present surveys and knowledge units, but in addition establish areas the place knowledge gaps exist, counsel methods to fill them and perform pilot surveys and research to finetune new approaches for capturing higher knowledge. The brand new committee can also be half the dimensions of the 28-member panel that was reviewing financial knowledge.
Editorial | The lacking numbers: On the present vacuum of official knowledge
Mr. Sen is accompanied by seven lecturers, together with former Institute of Financial Development professor Biswanath Goldar, Nationwide Council for Utilized Financial Analysis professor Sonalde Desai, and Mausami Bose, professor on the Indian Statistical Institute. “Historically, the NSO used to nominate committees to advise on design and methodology for Surveys,” stated a veteran statistician. “Nonetheless, this panel has a wider mandate as it could actually additionally proactively work on points past the surveys for which the Ministry seeks their steerage,” he identified. As an illustration, one of many gadgets on SCoS’ agenda is to discover the supply of administrative statistics that may be helpful for surveys and producing extra knowledge.
Why does it matter?
In recent times, the credibility of a few of NSO’s knowledge, particularly the outcomes of assorted family surveys historically carried out by the Nationwide Pattern Survey Workplace (NSSO) have come underneath a cloud, with even high authorities officers questioning their method and outcomes. In 2019, the federal government had determined to junk the outcomes of two main NSSO family surveys carried out in 2017-18 — to evaluate the employment and consumption expenditure ranges in Indian households — by claiming they suffered from “knowledge high quality points”. The precise rationale for withholding the end result of the final surveys, carried out quickly after demonetisation and the implementation of the Items and Providers Tax (GST), is believed to be that they revealed misery in households. An analogous dilemma had arisen for coverage makers when these surveys, carried out each 5 years, revealed a not-so-enthralling image once they have been carried out in 2009-10, quickly after the worldwide monetary disaster. However the authorities went forward and revealed these findings and determined to do contemporary surveys in 2011-12 to filter out the ill-effects of the 2008 disaster.
Nonetheless, after the 2017-18 Surveys have been junked, a contemporary Family Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) was began solely final July and its outcomes might take at the least one other yr to be finalised. Within the absence of this knowledge, India’s key financial indicators similar to retail inflation, GDP and even the extent of poverty, normally revised primarily based on evolving consumption tendencies, proceed to be primarily based on the 2011-12 numbers, and are divorced from modern floor realities. It compels the federal government to depend on proxy knowledge similar to Workers’ Provident Fund (EPF) account numbers to gauge employment tendencies and the Nationwide Household Well being Survey to evaluate poverty ranges.
How can the SCoS bridge the belief deficit surrounding official knowledge?
Whereas it could actually advise the Statistics Ministry on particular person surveys and knowledge units, the brand new panel can also be anticipated to assist handle points raised “sometimes” on the outcomes and methodology of surveys. With survey design and options evolving, the panel can search to sensitise knowledge customers in regards to the nuances concerned to make sure higher interpretation of the numbers. Most significantly, the SCoS, which can assist the NSO finalise survey outcomes and, the unbiased Nationwide Statistical Fee that’s empowered to evaluate whether or not any official knowledge is match for launch, should search to rebuild the credibility of India’s statistics.