The China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC) has been a pivotal element of the Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI), connecting the Ports in Pakistan to China’s north western area. Among the many quite a few initiatives that make up CPEC, the Foremost Line 1 (ML-1) railway mission stands out as a transformative endeavour with the potential to reshape Pakistan’s financial and infrastructural panorama. On this article, an try has been made to spell out as to what ML-1 CPEC Mission is and why it isn’t solely helpful however important for Pakistan’s development and growth.
Pakistan Railway (PR) has categorised its Infrastructure beneath following three classes.
1. ML-1 Keamari Karachi to Peshawar by way of Lahore and Rawalpindi
2. ML-2 Kotri to Attock metropolis by way of Larkana, Jacobabad, DG Khan and Kundian.
3. ML-3 Rohri to Chaman (by way of Quetta), Spezand to Taftan and different department strains and future strains.
ML-1 is about 1726 Kilometres lengthy and round 80% of the economic centres and the inhabitants are situated alongside this hall. Moreover , that is the road which connects the 2 main sea ports, i.e. Karachi port and Port Qasim, with remainder of the nation. This hall has very justifiably been termed because the life-line of the nation and therefore the significance of ML-1 can by no means be overemphasised.
The Public Sector funding in Rail Sector of Pakistan began declining throughout seventies as a consequence of main coverage shift favouring Highway Sector. As a consequence , the Rail Infrastructure began working its downward course due to progressively reducing funding by the federal government. This adversely affected the general efficiency of Pakistan Railway. The 70% market share of PR in freight sector throughout sixties, dwindled to virtually 2% to three% at current.
The present situation of observe on ML-1 is kind of worrisome . The overage proportion of rails varies from 45% to 90% in practically 2300 Kilometres size of observe and proportion of overage sleepers ranges from 30% to 95% in about 500 Kilometres.Many of the bridges are greater than 100 Years outdated and have outlived their life. At majority of railway stations, signalling system is out of date. All that is coupled with low high quality of upkeep and the required assets for ‘as much as mark’ upkeep will not be obtainable.The upkeep programs are guide and out of date. The present fleet of observe upkeep equipment is way under the precise requirement for full mechanised upkeep. The standard of guide upkeep, at present in vogue, is way from passable. The sequel is continuous degradation of observe.This was amply exhibited when a significant bridge in Karachi Division (Ranpethani) collapsed and the rail visitors remained suspended for fairly quite a lot of days.
Underneath the above circumstances, ML-1 was conceived within the yr 2014. After a Feasibility Research, the price of the mission was estimated US$ 9.2 billion. Preliminary Design was ready and was obtained reviewed by the third social gathering. Nonetheless, a modified PC-1, at the price of $US 9.Eight billion, was accepted for the up gradation having the next options :
1. Elevate the axle load to 25 Tons as is the norm within the World Railways now. Pakistan Railway is at present working at 22.86 Tons
2. To lift the velocity for passenger trains to 160 KMH
3. To remove Stage Crossings that are a severe security hazard even at present velocity of 120 KMH. Accidents on Stage Crossings and consequent lack of human life is alarming.
4. Many of the bridges are greater than 100 years outdated and outlived their anticipated life. These are actually degrading repeatedly as a consequence of lack of efficient upkeep.
5. Set up fashionable signalling system to switch the age-old out of date programs
6. To dualize the observe from Lahore to Peshawar.
7. Switch of Know-how for mechanised upkeep and building of observe.
The execution of the mission would have resulted in enhancement of line capability to greater than 134 trains per day in opposition to current line capability of 34 trains per day . Increased axle load and lengthier trains would have enhanced the per prepare pay load carrying capability leading to higher productiveness. Security parameters would have tremendously elevated as a consequence of extra strong observe infrastructure, absence of stage crossings and fashionable signalling.
The mission was conceived within the yr 2014 however implementation on floor couldn’t be began . The price of the mission made the decision-makers vacillate and procrastinate which took heavy toll within the form of additional deterioration of infrastructure making it riskier for protected prepare operations. The fee issue made PR administration rationalise scope and value by leaving a sure works to future. The present rationalized value is $US 6.7 billion. Nonetheless, no main compromise has been made as to authentic options with the exception that over some sections working velocity is120 km/hr with velocity of 140 km the place geometric circumstances allow. Nonetheless, From Karachi to Hyderabad operational velocity shall be 160 km /hr. Nonetheless, the designed velocity shall be 160 km/hr proper from Karachi upto Lalamusa. This may improve line capability from 34 trains per day to 100 trains a day. This may allow PR to maneuver round 30 hundreds of thousands tonnes of cargo per yr over this commerce hall which, at current, is nearly 8.5 million tonnes out of whole of 95 million tonnes obtainable for transportation.
The visitors forecasts have been endorsed by unbiased research carried out by Asian Improvement Financial institution (ADB) and JICA. This has additionally been authenticated by joint research carried out by Chinese language and PR groups. Again in 2019, The World Financial institution not solely endorsed visitors forecasts but additionally declared the Mission as technically sound and primarily required for Pakistan. The Mission is to be to financed via a comfortable mortgage from China.Nonetheless, delay after delay is inflicting irreparable loss not solely to PR however to nationwide economic system as effectively. One cause of this unlucky delay is maybe adversarial opinions held and expressed by eminent economists like our ex-Finance Minister Mr. Miftah Ismail in Daybreak of November 05, 2023. He concluded his article with the next phrases
“Subsequently, we should always defer ML-1 mission for few years. Proper now, it might be like shopping for a company jet for the CEO of a deeply indebted loss-making firm. The jet could also be handy for company managers however it’s not a luxurious the corporate can afford. Equally, we will’t afford the brand new railway line.”
We consider and are certain that he provided his opinion in all sincerity and together with his finest skilled acumen, however, sadly, was not geared up with right info as to present standing of Railway Infrastructure and likewise suffered from scanty data relating to Railway and its working . We’ve got talked about very temporary remarks concerning the situation of Railway Infrastructure within the above paras. However, this isn’t all. Each day rising variety of accidents and slowing down of trains as a consequence of poor situation of infrastructure depicts the unhappy actuality. Many railway sections needed to be closed as a consequence of poor infrastructure. Slowing down of trains as a consequence of poor and precarious infrastructure not solely compromises security and high quality of service but additionally decreased line capability leading to discount in variety of trains that may be run which, in flip, entail elevated loss. Railway, as a mode of transport, is a excessive fastened value operation. Usually, round 80% value of railway operations is fastened. It’s a easy precept of economics that capability utilisation of a excessive fastened value trade is the important thing to profitability. Operating 30 to 34 trains a day (which is present line capability) Pakistan Railway is sustaining enormous losses and is a everlasting drain on authorities exchequer.The first goal of ML-1 was to reinforce the road capability which is the one chance for Pakistan Railway to change into worthwhile. The rationale and foundation of recommending deferment of ML-1 is predicated on the pretext that substantial curiosity must be paid in opposition to the Chinese language mortgage ignoring the truth that the federal government is already doling out some huge cash to maintain it afloat. Accepting suggestions of honourable Miftah Ismail would imply we’re not able to pay the curiosity on mortgage, however, we’re prepared to maintain enormous monetary losses yearly along with lack of human lives in accidents and depriving individuals of Pakistan from a cushty, protected and economical mode of transport.
We’ve got been deferring correct upkeep and maintenance of railway infrastructure since final greater than 50 years. Additional deferment means nothing, however, additional deterioration which can be deadly and at last result in demise of Pakistan Railway. No sane authorities can afford enormous monetary losses, yr On yr, with no hope of survival .
At this cut-off date, we’ve got to significantly assume whether or not we actually want a railway system in Pakistan. If reply is not any, we should name it a day and shut rail operations forthwith to keep away from additional recurring monetary losses.Nonetheless, earlier than we do that allow us have an neutral have a look at the next floor realities :
Pakistan’s import invoice of gasoline is an enormous burden on International Change Reserves. An environment friendly and productive railway system is usually a saviour. Each single human life could be very treasured and railway is the most secure mode of transport. Surroundings is a severe concern for us now and may we not have setting pleasant programs.
We additionally want to go searching to see what is going on on the earth on this respect. It’s a recognized indisputable fact that developed international locations are repeatedly rising the function of railways for heavy hauls. World is adopting excessive velocity prepare operations for passenger actions. The identical is true in our neighbourhood. China has tremendously enhanced its dimension of railway system and is rising excessive velocity operations daily . India has adopted railway as a main mode of transport. She is repeatedly electrifying and including new strains together with very costly railway observe to Kashmir, the most tough terrain for a railway system. Even Afghanistan, which was a rustic with no railway, is setting up its rail system. This means resurgence of rail system and its significance via out the world being main and environment friendly mode of transport.
As to overseas borrowing and cost of curiosity thereon, the phrases and circumstances of mortgage from China are but to be negotiated. Nonetheless, a sure issues are for certain. Firstly, that is Infrastructure Mission therefore there shall be no ‘Insurance coverage Value’ as given to know by the honourable ex-Minister for Finance . This value is related to Power Sector Mission. Secondly , We’ve got been getting very beneficial phrases and circumstances of Chinese language loans for building of Highways beneath CPEC. Because the authorities of China declared ML-1 as one of many Strategic Initiatives, due to this fact, we’ve got each cause to consider that we might be getting a lot beneficial phrases and circumstances of mortgage viz-a-viz that of street sector initiatives beneath CPEC .
The suggestion of honourable ex-Minister {that a} fashionable signalling system, at a value of US$ 150 million, will be an alternate— is kind of thoughts boggling for an individual who’s conscious of Railway working . It’s not comprehensible, how a contemporary signalling system will assist improve line capability and security when the observe and bridges beneath the prepare are in poor and deplorable situation, can’t afford the precise hundreds and velocity of trains and will not be very protected. How the signalling system, standalone, will do the wonders is past comprehension .
Given the above backdrop , a abstract obtains as beneath :
Infrastructure Modernization: The ML-1 mission goals at modernizing Pakistan’s outdated and rundown railway infrastructure, together with tracks, signalling programs, Upkeep strategies and stations. This modernization is essential for bettering effectivity, security, and capability of the railway community.
Financial Improvement: The upgraded railway infrastructure will improve connectivity inside Pakistan and with neighbouring international locations, fostering financial growth and commerce. Improved transportation can facilitate the motion of products and other people, boosting financial actions and creating job alternatives.
Commerce Facilitation: ML-1 is anticipated to cut back transportation prices considerably and transit instances for items, making Pakistani merchandise extra aggressive in worldwide markets. Environment friendly rail transport can improve commerce connectivity between Pakistani Ports and the northern areas of Pakistan, in addition to with China and Central Asian international locations.
Power Effectivity: Upgraded rail infrastructure can result in vitality effectivity by lowering the necessity for street transport, which is unquestionably much less energy-efficient. Rail transport is usually thought of extra environmentally pleasant and energy-efficient than street transport, contributing to sustainability targets. It would assist minimise burden on our overseas trade reserves by lowering gasoline import invoice.
Strategic Connectivity: ML-1 can improve strategic connectivity between varied areas of Pakistan, making motion of troops and important provides extra environment friendly, particularly in distant or conflict-prone areas. This strategic benefit can bolster nationwide safety and defence capabilities.
International Direct Funding: Improved infrastructure, together with railways, can entice overseas direct funding by offering a dependable and environment friendly technique of transportation for companies. A well-connected railway community could make Pakistan a extra engaging vacation spot for traders, stimulating financial development.
Regional Integration: ML-1’s connectivity to neighbouring international locations, particularly China, India, Afghanistan and CAS can promote regional integration and cooperation. Enhanced commerce hyperlinks can foster financial ties and diplomatic relationships, probably resulting in stability and mutual advantages for the international locations concerned.
Tourism Promotion: A contemporary and environment friendly railway community can promote tourism by offering comfy and handy journey choices for each home and worldwide vacationers. This will enhance the tourism trade, creating income and employment alternatives.
Public Transportation: Upgraded railways can enhance public transportation providers, providing an reasonably priced and environment friendly mode of journey for the overall inhabitants. This will ease congestion on roads, scale back air pollution, and improve total city mobility.
Security: Above all, it is going to present a protected and cozy travelling service to the individuals of Pakistan in addition to extra dependable and environment friendly logistics for freight sector.
In a nutshell, The ML-1 Mission is crucial for Pakistan’s path to progress and prosperity. It affords substantial advantages, starting from enhanced commerce and connectivity to job creation and environmental sustainability. By integrating Pakistan into the worldwide and regional economies, ML-1 is not only a railway mission, however, a ‘sport changer’ that may assist Pakistan notice its full financial potential enabling it to meet up with altering instances . We could have differing opinions, nonetheless , the actual fact stays that the ML-1 Mission is just not solely primarily required for Railway but additionally for Pakistan and that its additional delay shall be an incredible misfortune.
CO-AUTHORED BY
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ZAFAR ZAMAN RANJHA, EX-SECRETARY RAILWAY
SAEED AKHTAR, EX-CEO RAILWAY