CNN — The identical day that Azerbaijan celebrated the give up of separatist Armenian fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh, many within the breakaway area’s capital spent the night throwing stacks of paper onto a hearth. “One of many primary issues that folks had been doing in Stepanakert was burning all of the doable documentation that would change into proof for the Azerbaijani authorities that they personally had been a part of the de facto authorities,” Olesya Vartanyan, Disaster Group’s senior analyst for the South Caucasus, advised CNN. “They imagine that this might result in their persecution,” she stated. The ceasefire might have ended the most recent transient however bloody battle fought for management of the area, however there are fears a contemporary humanitarian catastrophe is simply starting. Azerbaijan has stated it plans to “reintegrate” Nagorno-Karabakh, however how this occurs with no mass exodus of the area’s greater than 120,000 ethnic Armenians, or with out violence being dedicated in opposition to those that keep and try to withstand Azerbaijani rule, is unclear. Azerbaijan stated it had regained full management of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic-Armenian enclave inside its borders, after launching a lightning 24-hour assault on Tuesday that killed not less than 200 folks and injured many lots of extra. Karabakh officers stated their forces had been outnumbered and had no alternative however to give up. Whether or not this results in a long-lasting peace is just not but clear. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally thought of a part of Azerbaijan however for many years has been underneath the management of Armenian separatists. Armenia and Azerbaijan have already fought two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh because the collapse of the Soviet Union, and ceasefire agreements between them have confirmed brittle. Whereas this ceasefire might have saved Karabakh from the kind of massacre seen in earlier wars, it has totally upended the lives of ethnic Armenians within the area, who now face an unsure future. Whereas the 2020 ceasefire known as on either side to put down their weapons, Wednesday’s settlement was way more complete. Nagorno-Karabakh’s presidential workplace stated it had agreed to the “full disarmament of its armed forces.” However officers from Baku have demanded extra, calling for “the dissolution of the puppet regime” in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has for many years been dominated by a de facto authorities not acknowledged by Azerbaijan or another nation, together with Armenia. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has lengthy been specific concerning the alternative that confronts Karabakh officers. In a speech delivered in Could, he advised Karabakh Armenians they wanted to “bend their necks” and settle for full integration into Azerbaijan. Baku despatched representatives to satisfy with Karabakh officers within the metropolis of Yevlakh on Thursday, “to debate reintegration points.” Few particulars had been launched concerning the assembly, forward of which Aliyev stated of the Karabakh Armenians that “all their rights will likely be assured.” The Azeri delegation stated the talks had been “held in a constructive and constructive surroundings,” and had targeted on the humanitarian scenario, particularly the necessity for gas and meals. “Their requests had been nicely acquired. The heating techniques of kindergartens and colleges, emergency medical support and firefighting gear, gas and humanitarian support will likely be provided,” the delegation stated, based on the nationwide information company AZA. There are fears over what “reintegration” entails, nonetheless. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and worldwide consultants have repeatedly warned of the danger of ethnic cleaning of Armenians within the enclave. The United Nations secretary-general “stays deeply involved concerning the influence of the escalation on the humanitarian scenario,” UN senior political official Miroslav Jenca stated in a speech on the UN Safety Council on Thursday. Nagorno-Karabakh has been underneath blockade for 9 months. In December 2022, Azerbaijan-backed activists established a army checkpoint alongside the Lachin hall, the one route connecting Armenia to the area, stopping the import of meals and prompting fears that residents had been being left to starve. The blockade has additionally prevented humanitarian organizations and overseas media from accessing the area, which means that it’s troublesome to independently confirm studies of additional Azerbaijani assaults and the motion of the Armenian inhabitants. Siranush Sargsyan, a journalist in Nagorno-Karabakh, advised CNN she may hear “intensive” shelling from a suburb in Stepanakert Thursday, whereas the negotiations between Karabakh and Baku officers had been ongoing. “A lot of the inhabitants had been in panic, operating and frightened,” she stated. Following the truce, hundreds of Karabakh residents reportedly fled to the airport, the place Russian peacekeepers have a base. Sargsyan additionally stated “there are greater than 20 villages underneath siege” within the extra rural areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. “There isn’t any electrical energy and cellphone connection doesn’t function, so we don’t know if our family members are protected.” Olesya Vartanyan stated the motion of Azerbaijani troops into these areas displaced hundreds. “These folks, they don’t have a spot to reside. Lots of them are within the streets,” she stated. Whereas many Armenians, fearing additional escalation, have already made up their minds to depart, Vartanyan stated it’s unclear who will arrange routes overseas, if the Lachin blockade is lastly lifted. “Will or not it’s Russian peacekeepers, the ICRC, or will or not it’s Azerbaijani authorities?” she stated. “Then, does it imply folks must undergo filtration camps? After which will folks get detained – for instance, the native males who took half within the combating prior to now, or those that had been a part of the native de facto authorities?” she requested. “It’s a multitude.” It’s also unclear the place Karabakh Armenians will journey to, if evacuations are capable of start. “The Authorities of Armenia doesn’t search the displacement of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and believes that the rights of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to reside safely and in dignity of their properties should be assured,” Pashinyan’s workplace advised state media Armenpress Thursday. However, if that is “unattainable, the required choices will likely be taken,” the assertion added, with out including additional particulars. Farid Shafiyev, chair of the Middle of Evaluation of Worldwide Relations in Baku, advised CNN that the selection confronting Armenians who selected to remain was clear. “Those that don’t wish to settle for Azerbaijani jurisdiction, they’ve to depart. Those that wish to keep and get the passports, they’re welcome to remain,” stated Shafiyev, whose heart was concerned in Baku’s plans for “reintegration.” Requested whether or not she would additionally try to evacuate, Sargsyan stated she wished to remain in Stepanakert so long as doable. “But when they assault once more I don’t know what we’ll do,” she stated. “What I do know is I can’t belief them, their pretend guarantees.” Past the speedy try to supply shelter and different support to the hundreds of Armenians making an attempt to flee Nagorno-Karabakh, there may be the query of how Baku intends to dissolve present establishments within the area and erect its personal. “That is an entity that has been self-governing as a de facto state. Previous to that it was a part of Soviet Azerbaijan. It has a really lengthy expertise and apply of autonomy,” Anna Ohanyan, a senior scholar within the Russia and Eurasia program on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, advised CNN. Ohanyan warned that making an attempt to tear down present establishments, which Baku has claimed it intends to, could be “an assault on the capacities for real peace-building down the highway. If Azerbaijan was real about integrating, there could be some integration of those establishments.” Extra gravely, Ohanyan warned there may be “no query” that Azerbaijan would use pressure, if Armenians within the enclave refused to simply accept Azerbaijani citizenship. “If the Armenian group is not going to go away, but in addition is not going to take up Azerbaijani passports, I believe that principally could be suicidal,” Ohanyan advised CNN. The perfect case situation, based on Ohanyan, could be “a Potemkin village… to proceed to gaslight the West,” referring to pretend settlements as soon as used to impress the Russian empress Catherine the Nice. “However in the long run, I believe there will likely be a scientific push, continued demographic engineering to push Armenian communities exterior the area.”