Seoul, South Korea CNN — It’s a rising downside that has United States naval commanders scratching their heads: Methods to sustain with China’s ever-expanding fleet of warships. Not solely is China’s navy already the world’s largest, its numerical lead over the US is getting wider, with the pinnacle of the US Navy warning lately that American shipyards merely can’t sustain. Some consultants estimate China can construct three warships within the time it takes the US to construct one. It’s simply one of many issues, alongside Beijing’s growing aggression within the South China Sea and round Taiwan, that’s more likely to be weighing on the thoughts of US Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin as he joins high navy figures from throughout the area at this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The prospect of a breakthrough on any of these points this weekend seems slim, not least as a result of China has pointedly rejected a US proposal for Austin to fulfill his Chinese language counterpart Li Shangfu on the discussion board. However consultants who spoke to CNN earlier than the summit say a possible resolution to one among them – the Chinese language fleet’s numerical benefit – is inside attain, if the US is ready to suppose outdoors the field. Washington, they are saying, has one thing Beijing doesn’t: Allies in South Korea and Japan who’re constructing a number of the highest spec – and reasonably priced – naval {hardware} on the oceans. Shopping for ships from these international locations, and even constructing US-designed vessels of their shipyards, might be an economical method of closing the hole with China, they are saying. Their warships are “definitely a match for his or her (Chinese language) counterparts,” says Blake Herzinger, a analysis fellow at america Research Heart in Australia, whereas Japan’s warship designers “are among the many world’s finest,” says Carl Schuster, a former director of operations on the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Heart in Hawaii. Each international locations have mutual protection treaties with the US, so why doesn’t the US staff up with them to outbuild China? The issue is, US regulation at the moment prevents its Navy from shopping for foreign-built ships – even from allies – or from constructing its personal ships in overseas international locations as a consequence of each safety issues and a want to guard America’s shipbuilding trade. Schuster, Herzinger and others are amongst a rising physique of consultants who say it might be time to rethink that regulation to present the US an edge within the battle for the seas. The Pentagon estimates China’s navy to have round 340 warships at current, whereas the US has fewer than 300. It thinks the Chinese language fleet will develop to 400 within the subsequent two years, whereas the US fleet will take till 2045 to hit 350. But it surely’s not simply the growing vastness of the Chinese language navy that has raised issues. A number of the ships China is churning out arguably have higher firepower than a few of their US counterparts. Analysts warn of intensifying arms race throughout Asia (November, 2021) Take China’s Kind 055, in lots of eyes the world’s premier destroyer. Displacing 12,000 to 13,000 tons, the Kind 055 is larger than typical destroyers (it’s nearer in measurement to the US Navy’s Ticonderoga class of cruisers) and packs a formidable punch. It has 112 vertical launch system (VLS) cells that fireplace surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles, which is greater than the 96 on the most recent of the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. It additionally boasts subtle radio and anti-submarine weapons techniques. And China is pumping them out. It started constructing the Kind 055s in 2014 and lately commissioned its eighth, the Xianyang. The US’s work on its Zumwalt-class destroyers has been a lot slower; development started 5 years earlier, but solely two have entered service. However some Western analysts say the Kind 055 could have a peer in South Korea’s Sejong the Nice-class destroyers. At 10,000 to 12,000 tons displacement, the Sejongs are barely smaller than China’s Kind 055s, however they’ve extra firepower, with 128 VLS cells and weapons that embody surface-to-air, anti-submarine and cruise missiles. The three Sejongs, which value about $925 million every, are the pleasure of the South Korean fleet. “With this one ship, (the South Korean Navy) can deal with a number of simultaneous conditions – anti-aircraft, anti-ship, anti-submarine, anti-surface – and defend from ballistic missiles,” the nation’s Protection Media Company says. Retired South Korean Adm. Duk-ki Kim, the primary particular person to captain a Sejong, says it’s greater than a match for China’s Kind 055. “China is specializing in amount and value competitiveness quite than the standard of its vessels,” Kim, now vp of the Korea Affiliation of Army Research, instructed CNN. Japan, too, has “world class” destroyers, stated Alessio Patalano, professor of struggle and technique at King’s Faculty in London. The nation’s latest Maya-class destroyers are armed with 96 VLS cells that may fireplace each anti-ballistic and anti-submarine missiles, whereas the “high quality of its sensors and techniques stands on the very high finish of the spectrum,” in line with Patalano. Final November, the Mayas demonstrated their potential to destroy ballistic missiles touring outdoors Earth’s ambiance. These 96 VLS cells put the Mayas on par with the most recent of the US Arleigh Burkes, however there’s a vital distinction between them: The Arleigh Burkes value $2.2 billion; the Mayas value a billion {dollars} much less. In different phrases, the Mayas characterize each “amount and high quality”: They’re high-spec, (comparatively) low value and may roll off manufacturing traces at pace. “If Chinese language shipbuilding is exhibiting a exceptional capability for mass manufacturing, Japan’s is main the way in which in reasonably priced high quality on a scale bigger than most naval powers, with out sacrificing commissioning occasions. That stability, and the expertise within the philosophy, are a real edge,” Patalano stated. And it’s not simply the Mayas. Take Japan’s Mogami-class frigates; speedy, stealthy 5,500-ton warships with 16 VLS cells that fireplace surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles. All executed with a crew of 90 and a price ticket of about $372 million every. Against this, the primary of the US Navy’s underneath growth Constellation-class frigates are anticipated to value 3 times as a lot and require twice as many crew. That’s lower than supreme given the US Navy is having a tough time recruiting – the US vice chief of naval operations has stated it’s more likely to miss its recruiting objective by 6,000 this yr – although the Constellations are anticipated to have twice as many VLS cells because the Mogamis. Price comparisons with China’s Kind 055s are more durable because of the opacity of the Chinese language system; estimates of their prices vary anyplace from $925 million to $2.6 billion every. So what’s making South Korean and Japanese shipyards so aggressive? Price overruns, endemic in US protection contracting, usually are not frequent in Japan, Schuster says, as a result of – not like the US – the nation holds producers to their estimates. “A Japanese shipbuilder’s bid is an absolute. In the event that they end it under anticipated value, they make a bigger revenue. In the event that they encounter delays and errors, the builder has to appropriate it at their very own expense,” Schuster stated. That method was “a lot wiser” than that of the US, he claims, pointing to the alleged issues with Zumwalt-class destroyers and littoral fight ships which have seen the Pentagon spend billions on platforms that critics say the US Navy doesn’t know what to do with. The US Navy’s three Zumwalt destroyers have priced out at about $eight billion every, nevertheless it’s unclear how they match into the remainder of the fleet. In the meantime, a number of the US’s littoral fight ships, which value greater than $350 million every, are anticipated to be decommissioned earlier than they’ve even served a 3rd of their life span. All these Japanese and South Korean vessels are designed to include US expertise, weapons, spy radars and the Aegis command and management system. Partly that is in order that the 2 navies can function seamlessly alongside their US counterpart, as they did in joint workouts earlier this yr. However then if the US, Japanese and South Korean ships use related expertise and may function collectively, why does the regulation stop the US from constructing a few of its ships in Japanese and South Korean shipyards? The prohibition isn’t nearly safety issues. It’s additionally geared toward retaining shipbuilding jobs and experience throughout the US. In 2019, complete financial exercise related to the US shipbuilding trade accounted for almost 400,000 jobs and contributed $42.four billion in GDP, in line with the Maritime Administration, with 154 shipyards…